Quick list of the most useful data resources in crypto
Compiled by the Messari Research team: Dune Analytics - provides a number of pre-set sector and project specific dashboards on key metrics needed to assess the health of the industry. Create custom dashboards with SQL by directly querying the Ethereum blockchain. Nansen - On-chain analysis providing various sector and project specific dashboards. Specifically useful for tracking behavior of specific ERC-20 movements from exchanges, unique addresses and large holders. Token Terminal - Great for comparing traditional financial metrics like revenue generated by various protocols. Useful for generating relative valuation comparisons. DeFi Pulse - DeFi Pulse’s Total Value Locked (TVL) metric has become the de facto approximation of the size of DeFi, calculated by summing all collateral locked in a given protocol. Etherscan - Ethereum’s tried and true block explorer. Use cases include checking the status of current on-chain transactions, looking through historical transactions, viewing top holders of a certain token, and monitoring gas fees. CoinMetrics - Broad range of on-chain, price, volume, mining, and supply data points for almost all major blockchains. Glassnode - Multi-purpose data provider offering an array of charts and dashboards like “whale watching” chart that shows the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC. IntotheBlock- Another on-chain/market analytics tool great for conducting due diligence. Offers unique charts that show, for example, order book market depth. Skew - The place for derivative data across bitcoin and ethereum futures and options, useful for analyzing crypto market structure during stress tests like Black Thursday. Messari - The core screener tools allow me to keep up with short and long term price movements. The reports we’ve compiled are also great for tracking leading crypto funds. The charting tool is great for tracking year-to-date performance:
Bitcoin SV, Augur, Crypto.com Coin Price Analysis: 18 October
This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteBitcoin SV has noted quite a lot of volatility in its valuation over the past few weeks. Although it failed to note a trend in the short-term, it might be forced lower on the charts in the coming weeks, unless the bulls stepped in. Augur was trading within […]
For someone not familiar with Bitcoin, the first question that comes to mind is, "What is Bitcoin?" And another common question that is often asked relates to the Bitcoin price. It started out a under 10 cents per Bitcoin upon its introduction in early 2009. It has risen steadily since and has hovered around $4000 per Bitcoin recently. So regarding Bitcoin value or the Bitcoin rate this is a most remarkable appreciation of value and has created many, many millionaires over the last eight years. The Bitcoin market is worldwide and the citizens of China and Japan have been particularly active in its purchase along with other Asian countries. However, recently in Bitcoin news the Chinese government has tried to suppress its activity in that country. That action drove the value of Bitcoin down for a short time but it soon surged back and is now close to its previous value. The Bitcoin history chart is very interesting. Its creator was an anonymous group of brilliant mathematicians (using the pseudonym Satoski Nakamoto) who designed it in 2008 to be "virtual gold" and released the first Bitcoin software in early 2009 during the height of the USA economic crisis. They knew that to have lasting value, it like gold had to have a finite supply. So in creating it they capped the supply at 21 million Bitcoin. Bitcoin mining refers to the process by which new Bitcoin is created. With conventional currency, government decides when and where to print and distribute it. With Bitcoin, "miners" use special software to solve complex mathematical problems and are issued a certain number of Bitcoin in return. A question that then arises is, is Bitcoin mining worth it. The answer is NO for the average person. It takes very sophisticated knowledge and a powerful computer system and this combination of factors makes it unattainable for the masses. This applies even more to bitcoin mining 2017 than in past years. Many wonder, who accepts Bitcoin? This question gets asked in various ways, what are stores that accept bitcoin, what are websites that accept bitcoins, what are some retailers that accept bitcoin, what are some places that accept bitcoin and where can I spend bitcoin. More and more companies are beginning to see the value of accepting cryptocurrencies as a valid payment option. Some major companies that do are DISH network, Microsoft, Expedia, Shopify stores, Newegg, Payza, 2Pay4You, and others.Two major holdouts at this time are Walmart and Amazon. Ethereum is the strongest rival to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market and many wonder at the question of Bitcoin vs Ethereum. Ethereum was created in mid-2015 and has gained some popularity but still ranks far behind Bitcoin in usage, acceptance and value. A question that often comes up often relates to Bitcoin scam. This author has a friend who made a purchase from a company that promised 1-2% growth per day. The company website listed no contact information and after a couple months the website simply vanished one day and my friend lost all the money he had invested which was several thousand dollars. One has to know how to buy Bitcoins, how to purchase Bitcoin or how to buy Bitcoin with credit card in order to get started. Coinbase is a very popular site to do this. Their fee is 3.75% and the buying limit is $10,000 per day. This would probably be the easiest way to buy bitcoins. Others would like to buy Bitcoin with debit card. Coinbase also provides this service and has clear step by step instructions on how to proceed with either your debit or credit card. There are those who would like to buy Bitcoin instantly. This can be done at Paxful, Inc. and can be done through W. Union or any credit/debit card. Other common questions that come up are what is the best way to buy Bitcoins, the best way to get bitcoins or where to buy bitcoins online. The easiest way is probably to purchase it through a digital asset exchange like the previously mentioned Coinbase. Opening an account with them is painless and once you link your bank account with them you can buy and sell Bitcoin quite easily. This is quite likely also the best place to buy Bitcoins. One must know what a Bitcoin wallet is and how to use it. It is simply the Bitcoin equivalent of a bank account. It allows you to receive Bitcoins, store them and send them to others. What it does is store a collection of Bitcoin privacy keys. Typically it is encrypted with a password or otherwise protected from unauthorized access. There are several types of digital wallets to choose from. A web wallet allows you to send, receive and store Bitcoin though your web browser. Another type is a desktop wallet and here the wallet software is stored directly on your computer. There are also mobile wallets which are designed for use by a mobile device. A question that occasionally comes up is that of Bitcoin stock or how to buy Bitcoin stock. By far the most common way to proceed in this area is to buy Bitcoin directly and not its stock. There is one entity called Bitcoin Investment trust which is an investment fund that is designed to track the market flow of Bitcoin. Some analysts however are calling this a risky way to become involved in this marketplace. The Bitcoin exchange rate USD is a closely watched benchmark both on a daily basis and long term over the last 8 years since its introduction to the world's financial marketplace. A popular company to receive the most current rate in Bitcoin valuation is XE. They show Bitcoin to USD valuation and also the complete Bitcoin price chart, the Bitcoin value chart and the Bitcoin to USD chart. If you ask, "How much is one Bitcoin?" you will always know from their continuously updated charts. Similar questions that come up in this area relate to the bitcoin rate history, the bitcoin price chart live, the bitcoin to dollar exchange rate, the bitcoin dollar chart and the bitcoin 5 year chart. The previously mentioned website, xe, is also a good source for answers to these questions. Regarding Bitcoin cash, ie. to get USD from selling Bitcoin, Bitwol is one company that enables you to do this. WikiHow is another company that will take you through this process.
Everything you need to know about Bitcoin's 'holy trinity'
This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this site After a modest drop of 4.85% between October 1st-3rd, Bitcoin‘s daily chart has registered 9 green candles out of a possible 11 candles in the market. A sense of urgency was attached to Bitcoin’s valuation, as the price reached as high as $11,700 on 12th October. With […]
Bitcoin Cash, Tezos, BAT Price Analysis: 13 October
This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteThe Bitcoin market has recorded impressive gains in the last few days. This further influenced the valuation of its fork coin Bitcoin Cash. The technical indicators for Tezos were fairly bullish on the charts as well. Basic Attention Token (BAT), was displaying weakness in its buying momentum while BAT […]
For Trading September 29TH MERGER MONDAY! BROAD RALLY Today’s market started off on the upside and spent the rest of the day comfortably up, in fact the DJIA +410.10 (1.5%), was the only one of the averages that came off the highs at the close, finishing 140 or so below it. NASDAQ was +203.97 (1.87%), S&P 500 +53.14 (1.61%), the Russell +35.48, the biggest gainer (2.41%) and the DJ Transports +170.95 (1.52%). What was most impressive to me was the fact that the Mega-cap and FAANG names weren’t weak, but definitely not racing higher all day. The other interesting point was that all the indexes closed over last weeks highs! The market internals were actually pretty good with the NYSE 5:1 and NASDAQ 3:1; volume was light (Jewish holiday) and the DJIA was solidly positive with only 3 of the 30 lower and all less than $1. BA was the biggest winner adding 66 DP’s. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/pEWUtvQgNoM SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have 2 deals; Devon Energy (DVN) and WPX Energy in a merger of equals that the street liked sending both of them higher. DVN $9.80 +.98 (11%) and WPX $5.17 +.73. DVN has spent the last 10 years moving steadily lower from $122 to a low of $4.70, and WPX not quite so bad from $25 to $1.94. I guess when you compare -92% vs. -95% there really aren’t any winners. Also, in the M&A arena, we have Cleveland Cliffs,13.37 +1.28 (10.6% CLF buying the US assets of MT, Arcelor Mittal for $1.4 billion. The street liked this one too, CLF $6.56 +.68 (11.5%) and MT $13.37 +1.28 (10.6%), although this one is cash and stock, so it’s hard to quote a valuation. It wasn’t all good news, with 2 smallish biotech’s, INO and EIGR both having problems with their Covid-19 vaccine trials. INO, up from $1.95 this year to peak at $33.49 had already fallen back to close Friday $16.94 opened the day at $10.67 and closed $12.14 -4.80 (28%), and EIGR with a January high near $15 and Friday close $9.89 opened the day $9.47 and then sold down to $7.67 and closed $7.96 -1.93 (19.5%). On the upside, in a major way, was Piedmont Lithium (PLL) taking the HOMERUN OF THE DAY disclosing a 5-year contract with TESLA for the mineral Spodumene, a component of lithium. The stock had closed $11.00 and opened $36.66, traded up to $54.50 and finished the day $37.00 +$26 (236.36%). Also, of interest, according to my service, the stock last traded Thursday, 9/17, so unlike many deals that “leak” this was as clean as a whistle. One more small one, Oxbridge Re Holdings, a Cayman re-insurance company that shows absolutely no news and has spent the last 5 years going from $7.76 to a low of $ .55, closed $1.07 Friday and opened $1.55 and proceeded to move up to $9.62 and back down to close $2.95 +1.88 (175%). I’m sure we’ll hear more on that one tomorrow! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.22, RCL +1.67, NCHL +.14, AAL +.55, DAL +1.78, LUV +1.38, UAL +1.85, HA +.61, ALK +1.25, and XTN $59.28 +1.34 (2.31%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.53, FLO +.29, CPB +.42, CAG +.46, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +.96, CALM +.29, JJSF +2.06, SAFM +1.96, HRL +.86, SJM +1.09, PPC +.18, KR +.17, and PBJ $32.64 +41 (1.25%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +8.75, ABBV +1.72, REGN -2.14, ISRG +19.43, GILD +.78, MYL +.22, TEVA +.16, VRTX +.08, BHC +.08, INCY +3.81, ICPT unch., LABU +.03 and IBB $134.48 +1.01 (.76%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.09, CGC +.08, CRON -.12, GWPH -.94, ACB -.27, CURLF +.02, NBEV +.08, KERN -.03, and MJ $10.39 -.03 (.28%). DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +4.31, GD +2.99, TXT +1.54, NOC +1.52, BWXT +.49, TDY +3.41, RTX +1.94, and ITA $181.82 +3.38 (2.13%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.04, JWN +.38, KSS +.11, DDS +.88, WMT +.16, TGT +2.11, TJX +2.70, RL -.60, UAA +.29, LULU +3.90, TPR +.39, CPRI -.51and XRT $50.08 +1.20 (2.45%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +25.94, AMZN +94.47, AAPL +3.22, FB +3.68, NFLX +9.12, NVDA +7.85, TSLA +12.46, BABA +6.26, CMG +18.90, BIDU +2.71, CMG +18.90, CRM +5.06, BA +10.47, CAT +2.09, DIS +2.25, and XLK $116.62 +2.68 (2.35%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.29, JPM +3.08, BAC +.71, MS +1.41, C +1.49, PNC +3.23, AIG +.68, TRV +2.11, V +4.03, and XLF $24.05 +.56 (2.38%). OIL, $40.48 +.35, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.89 +.71 (2.35%). GOLD $1,882.30 +16.00, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but slightly higher. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action. BITCOIN: closed $10,960 +135. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.16 - 0.07 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading October 9th Solid Day IBM Soars, DPZ Crushed Today’s market was just a good, old-fashioned day without any major moves in the indexes, no earth-shattering tweets or end of days prognostications. I didn’t have any power, cable or phone last night so besides not putting out my Daily Note or closing comment, I miss the big debate. Judging by the reports I heard today, all I missed was the fly on Pence’s head! The DJIA was = 122.06 (.43%), NASDAQ +56.38 (.50%), S&P 500 +27.38 (.80%), the Russell was the big winner again +17.51 (1.09%) and the Transports +72.54 (.62%) and a new all-time high! The internals were good with NYSE 3:1 and NASDAQ 2:1 positive and all I can say is that it was very a very “Goldilocks” kind of day. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/lXD_OB9CrYU SECTORS: There was good news for holders of Eaton Vance (EV) being taken over by Morgan Stanley (MS) for about $7 billion in cash and stock. MS was -2.20 premarket but right after the open it started back up and finished $49.35 +.64, and since it included stock, the rise sent EV higher to close $60.78 +19.84 (48.4%). IBM also had news that sent it higher. They gave guidance and then announced that they are going to split the company up and make the pieces “pure plays” in an effort to get a better valuation for the parts. It looked great pre-market but by the open it had given up about 1/3 of the gains and finished the day up $7.42 (6%) after the early market up 12%. Same situation with REGN, trading up to $618 or so +$26, but the stock never made it there when the real market opened…and then traded back to $598 and closed $599.70 +8.00, near the lows, but still ahead 1.24%. On the downside, the DISASTER DU JOUR, was a name that I wrote about last week, WWR, Westwater Resources, which went from $1.52 to $14.50 on news that Mr. Trump had signed an executive order relating to securing “rare earth” and critical minerals last week. As I mentioned, the stock took off from under $2 to $14.50 in 4 days and then reversed and finished the day $7.46 -4.26 (36%). New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL -.22, RCL +1.48, NCLH +.28, AAL +.33, DAL +.67, LUV +.57, UAL +1.06, HA +.55, ALK +1.98, and XTN $61.54 +.77 (1.27%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN +.57, BOS +.03, FLO -.08, CPB +.48, CAG -.35,M MDLZ +.38, KHC +.36, CALM -.14, JJSF -.02, SAFM -1.59, HRL -.23, SJM -.33, PPC -.21, KR +.36, and PBJ $33.64 +.11 (.34%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.89, ABBV +.56, REGN +3.87, ISRG +2.74, GILD +.83, MYL +.83, TEVA +.35, VRTX +2.71, BHC +2.12, INCY +3.09, ICPT -2.46, LABU +.74 and IBB $141.38 +.39 (.28%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with the comment in last night’s debate that Kamala Harris that they would legalize pot. TLRY +1.38, CGC +2.84, CRON +.76, GWPH -1.19, ACB +.63, NBEV +.09, CURLF +.77, KERN +.21, and MJ $12.10 +1.15 (10.5%). DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +6.24, GD +1.73, TXT +.58, NOC +5.79, BWXT +2.53, TDY +7.63, RTX +1.31, and ITA $165.44 +2.76 (1.7%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +1.13, KSS +1.34, DDS +1.60, WMT +.79, TGT +1.72, TJX +.24, RL +2.55, UAA +.49, LULU -.80, TPR +1.08, CPRI +.86 and a new addition GPS +.10, and XRT $54.01 +.83 (1.56%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +26.86, AMZN +1.31, AAPL +.19, FB +6.29, NFLX -1.91, NVDA -6.16, TSLA +4.45, BABA +6.00, BIDU +.95, CMG +4.33, CRM +1.26, BA +4.05, CAT +2.98, DIS +.78, and XLK $118.37 +.61 (.52%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.91, JPM +2.51, BAC +.47, MS +.52, C +.06, PNC +1.37, AIG +.79, TRV +1.82, V +1.21, and XLF $25.20 +.34 (1.37%). OIL, $41.19 +1.24, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close +2.17. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $31.29 +1.13 (3.75%). GOLD $1,895.10 +4.30, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $10,955 +235. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.86 +.89 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Over the last one week, Ethereum registered poor daily returns that lowered the cryptocurrency’s valuation by more than 6%. The same was noted across the market after Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, too noted a decline on the charts. While such bearishness continued to persist, at press time, altcoins such as NEM and Zcash were […]
Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund. This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please. So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account" For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute. TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls. The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context. Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down. The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power" If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin! You can see how powerful this is. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here: https://www.artemiscm.com/welcome#research Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could. The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this. As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time. I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio. Physical PMs 22% I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical. I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars) to gold as the ratio tightens up. If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section. If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose. One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later) Commodity Trend (CTA) 10% https://youtu.be/tac8sWPZW0w Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at. COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash. COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag. Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk. Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff. Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value. RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want. NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on. I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages. EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend. If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still. Fixed Income/Bonds 10% Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value. HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly. Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below) This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that. VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either. FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend. ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward. I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to. The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised. SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared. When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc. SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ. Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order) MMX SAND PAAS PGM AUM AG MUX RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto KTN KL Options/Volatility: varies So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore. Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild. If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares. But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and kaboom...my account gets blown up So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do. Backspreads https://youtu.be/pvX5_rkm5x0 https://youtu.be/-jTvWOGVsK8 https://youtu.be/muYjjm934iY So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX. I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going. Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly. I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later. As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
Whale Watch: 68 New Whales Join ETH Network, BTC Holds Lowest Concentration of Whales
Whale Watch: 68 New Whales Join ETH Network, BTC Holds Lowest Concentration of Whales Onchain data shows that during the market carnage this past weekend the number of ethereum whales increased significantly, while ETH prices dropped by 30%. Analytics from the data firm Santiment shows 68 new whales joined the network during the last three days. During the last three days, cryptocurrency prices dropped considerably but ethereum (ETH) and a handful of defi tokens took some deeper losses in comparison. Over the weekend after the Sushiswap fiasco, ETH and a number of ERC20 token prices plummeted, losing 30% in value. The lower prices of ETH sparked a buying frenzy and according to Santiment data, 68 new whales (1,000 to 10,000 ETH) joined the ETH ecosystem. “Santiment‘s holder distribution chart shows that as ethereum was falling, there was a spike in the number of addresses with millions of dollars in ETH, colloquially known as whales,” the crypto proponent Ali Martinez tweeted on Sunday. “Roughly 68 new whales holding 1K to 10K ETH have joined the network in the past three days.” At the time of publication, the entire market cap of 6,700+ crypto assets is just above the $300 billion mark losing 7% in value during the last 24 hours. Looking at the top ten digital assets, in terms of market valuation, ETH’s concentration of large holders is 40% according to Intotheblock’s onchain metrics. In contrast to ETH’s concentration of large holders, bitcoin (BTC) has around 10%. ETH’s holders’ composition by time held is 56% today, while BTC’s time held aggregate is roughly 65%. Holders’ composition by time held is the classification of addresses according to their weighted average holding period. Meanwhile, tether (USDT) has a decent concentration of whales equal to ethereum at 40% but of course holders composition by time held for USDT is much less. Chainlink’s (LINK) concentration of whales is by far much larger, resting at 82% today. Bitcoin cash (BCH) whales on Monday is around 30% and holders’ composition by time held stands at 93%. Bitcoinsv (BSV) the fork of BCH has a touch lower concentration of whales at 28% today and holders’ composition by time held is around 89%. Litecoin (LTC) has a bigger concentration of large holders in contrast to BSV and BCH with 48% today. Holders’ composition by time held is resting at 66% for litecoin as well. Lastly, the tenth market position held by cardano (ADA) has 33% a concentration of whales and ADA’s time held holders’ composition is only 37% on Monday. The top ten’s onchain data shows that BTC has the least number of whales, while Chainlink (LINK) has the most concentration of large holders. What do you think about the concentration of large holders in the crypto asset economy? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 👉 Telegram TOTBTC: https://t.me/TOTBTCofficial👉 Register at: https://www.totbtc.com/register #TOTBTC#BTC#ETH#WHALES#LARGEHOLDERS https://preview.redd.it/vjsygtyd8am51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=248a28e2add7a072d7acd533499337310973a3a3
Whale Watch: 68 New Whales Join ETH Network, BTC Holds Lowest Concentration of Whales
Whale Watch: 68 New Whales Join ETH Network, BTC Holds Lowest Concentration of Whales Onchain data shows that during the market carnage this past weekend the number of ethereum whales increased significantly, while ETH prices dropped by 30%. Analytics from the data firm Santiment shows 68 new whales joined the network during the last three days. During the last three days, cryptocurrency prices dropped considerably but ethereum (ETH) and a handful of defi tokens took some deeper losses in comparison. Over the weekend after the Sushiswap fiasco, ETH and a number of ERC20 token prices plummeted, losing 30% in value. The lower prices of ETH sparked a buying frenzy and according to Santiment data, 68 new whales (1,000 to 10,000 ETH) joined the ETH ecosystem. “Santiment‘s holder distribution chart shows that as ethereum was falling, there was a spike in the number of addresses with millions of dollars in ETH, colloquially known as whales,” the crypto proponent Ali Martinez tweeted on Sunday. “Roughly 68 new whales holding 1K to 10K ETH have joined the network in the past three days.” At the time of publication, the entire market cap of 6,700+ crypto assets is just above the $300 billion mark losing 7% in value during the last 24 hours. Looking at the top ten digital assets, in terms of market valuation, ETH’s concentration of large holders is 40% according to Intotheblock’s onchain metrics. In contrast to ETH’s concentration of large holders, bitcoin (BTC) has around 10%. ETH’s holders’ composition by time held is 56% today, while BTC’s time held aggregate is roughly 65%. Holders’ composition by time held is the classification of addresses according to their weighted average holding period. Meanwhile, tether (USDT) has a decent concentration of whales equal to ethereum at 40% but of course holders composition by time held for USDT is much less. Chainlink’s (LINK) concentration of whales is by far much larger, resting at 82% today. Bitcoin cash (BCH) whales on Monday is around 30% and holders’ composition by time held stands at 93%. Bitcoinsv (BSV) the fork of BCH has a touch lower concentration of whales at 28% today and holders’ composition by time held is around 89%. Litecoin (LTC) has a bigger concentration of large holders in contrast to BSV and BCH with 48% today. Holders’ composition by time held is resting at 66% for litecoin as well. Lastly, the tenth market position held by cardano (ADA) has 33% a concentration of whales and ADA’s time held holders’ composition is only 37% on Monday. The top ten’s onchain data shows that BTC has the least number of whales, while Chainlink (LINK) has the most concentration of large holders. What do you think about the concentration of large holders in the crypto asset economy? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 👉 Telegram TOTBTC: https://t.me/TOTBTCofficial👉 Register at: https://www.totbtc.com/register #TOTBTC#BTC#ETH#WHALES#LARGEHOLDERS https://preview.redd.it/xh6dhscqnam51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4128996da84dd6365bd1c3ce2cbb669a6f3c992
Two Roads Diverge | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - May 2020
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth Robert Frost, The Road Not Taken This is my forty-second portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $727 917 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 128 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 569 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 009 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $187 003 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 987 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $225 540 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 726 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 741 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 652 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 714 Secured physical gold – $18 982 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $11 395 Bitcoin – $159 470 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 357 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 492 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 757 159 (+$62 325 or 3.7%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 41.4% (3.6% under) Global shares – 22.2% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.4% (2.6% under) Total shares – 68.8% (6.2% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.4% International bonds – 9.7% Total bonds – 14.1% (0.9% under) Gold – 7.8% Bitcoin – 9.1% Gold and alternatives – 16.9% (6.9% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments This month featured a further recovery in the overall portfolio, continuing to effectively reduce the size of the large losses across the first quarter. The portfolio has increased by around $62 000, leading to a portfolio growth of 3.7 per cent. This means that around half of the large recent falls have been made up, and the portfolio sits around levels last reached in October of last year. [Chart] Leading the portfolio growth has been increases in Australian shares - particularly those held through the Betashares A200 and Vanguard VAS exchange traded funds, with both gaining over four per cent. Most other holdings remained steady, or fell slightly. Markets appear to be almost entirely disconnected from the daily announcements of the sharp effects of the global coronavirus pandemic and the resulting restrictions. Bond and equity markets seem to have different and competing expectations for the future, and equity markets - at best - are apparently intent on looking through the immediate recovery phase to a new period of strong expansion. [Chart] On some metrics, both major global and Australian equity markets can be viewed as quite expensive, especially as reduced dividends announced have largely yet to be delivered. Yet if historically low bond yields are considered, it can be argued that some heightening compared to historical equity market valuations may be sustainable. Reflecting this moment of markets holding their breath before one of two possible futures plays out, gold and Bitcoin remain elevated, and consequently above their target weightings. Perhaps the same contending forces are in evidence in a recent Australian Securities and Investment Commission study (pdf) which has found that average Australian retail investors have reacted to uncertainty by activating old brokerage accounts, trading more frequently, and holding securities for shorter periods. My own market activity has been limited to purchases of Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS) and the international share ETF (VGS), to bring the portfolio closer to its target allocations. Will Australia continue to be lucky through global slow downs? Despite this burst of market activity in the retail market, it is unclear how Australian markets and equities will perform against the background of a global economic slowdown. A frequently heard argument is that a small open trade exposed commodities provider such as Australia, with a more narrowly-based economy, may perform poorly in a phase of heightened risk. This recent Bank of England paper (pdf) makes the intriguing suggestion that this argument is not borne out by the historical record. In fact, the paper finds that industrial production in Australia, China and a mere handful of other economies has tended to increase following global risk shocks. A question remaining, however, is whether the recovery from this 'risk shock' may have different characteristics and impacts than similar past events. One key question may be the exact form of government fiscal and monetary responses adopted. Another is whether inflation or deflation is the likely pathway - an unknown which itself may rely on whether long-term trends in the velocity of money supply continue, or are broken. Facing all uncertainties, attention should be on tail risks - and minimising the odds of extreme negative scenarios. The case for this is laid out in this moving reflection by Morgan Housel. For this reason, I am satisfied that my Ratesetter Peer-to-Peer loans have been gradually maturing, reducing some 'tail risk' credit exposures in what could be a testing phase for borrowers through new non-bank lending channels in Australia. With accrued interest of over $13 000, at rates of around 9 per cent on average, over the five years of the investment, the loans have performed relatively well. A temporary sheltering port - spending continues to decline This month spending has continued to fall even as lockdown and other restrictions have slowly begun to ease. These extraordinary events have pushed even the smoothed average of three year expenditure down. [Chart] On a monthly basis credit card spending and total expenses have hit the lowest levels in more than six years. Apparently, average savings rates are up across many economies, though obviously individual experiences and starting points can differ dramatically. Total estimated monthly expenditure has also fallen below current estimates of distributions for the first time since a period of exceptionally high distributions across financial year 2017-18. The result of this is that I am briefly and surprisingly, for this month, notionally financially independent based on assumed distributions from the FIRE portfolio alone - at least until more normal patterns of expenditure are resumed. Following the lines of drift - a longer view on progress made Yet taking a longer view - and accounting for the final portfolio goal set - gives a different perspective. This is of a journey reaching toward, but not at, an end. The chart below traces in purely nominal dollar terms the progress of the total portfolio value as a percentage of the current portfolio goal of $2.18 million over the last 13 years. It also shows three labels, with the percentage progress at the inception of detailed portfolio data in 2007, at the start of this written record in January 2017, and as at January 1 of this year. [Chart] Two trend lines are shown - one a polynomial and the other exponential function - and they are extended to include a projection of future progress out to around 18 months. The line of fit is close for the early part of the journey, but larger divergences from both trend lines are evident in the past two years as the impact of variable investment returns on a larger portfolio takes hold. There are some modest inaccuracies introduced by the nominal methodology adopted - such as somewhat discounting early progress. A 2007 dollar had greater 'real' value and significance than is assigned to it by this representation. The chart does demonstrate, however, the approximate shape and length of the early journey - with it taking around 5 years to reach 20 per cent of the target, and 10 years to reach around half way. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 80.6% 108.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.3% 132.3% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 78.8% 106.0% Summary With aspects of daily life slowly and incrementally adjusting to a 'new normal', the longer-term question for the portfolio remains around how markets and government actions interact in a recovery phase. The progress of the portfolio over the past 13 years has seemed, when viewed from afar as in chart above, predictable, and almost inevitable. Through the years it has felt anything but so smoothly linear. Rather, tides and waves have pushed and pulled, in turn stalling progress, or pushing it further ahead than hopes have dared. It is possible that what lays ahead is a simple 'return leg', or more of the same. That through simple extrapolation around 80 per cent of the challenges already lay behind. Yet that is not the set of mind that I approach the remainder of the journey with. Rather, the shortness of the distance to travel has lent an extra focus on those larger, lower probability, events that could delay the journey or push it off-course. Those 'third' risks types of tail risks which Morgan Housel points out. In one sense the portfolio allocation aims to deal - in a probabilistic way - with the multiple futures that could occur. Viewed in this way, a gold allocation (and also Bitcoin) represents a long option on an extreme state of the economic world arising - as it did in the early 1980s. The 75 per cent target allocation to equities can be viewed as a high level of assurance around a 'base case' that human ingenuity and innovation will continue to create value over the long term. The bond portfolio, similarly, can be seen as assigning a 15 per cent probability that both of these hypotheses are incorrect, and that further market falls and possible deflation are ahead. That perhaps even an experience akin to the lengthy, socially dislocating, post-bubble phase in Japan presided over by its central bank lays in store. In other interesting media consumed this month, 'Fire and Chill', the brand new podcast collaboration between Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia got off to an enjoyable start, tackling 'Why Bother with FIRE' and other topics. Additionally, investment company Incrementum has just published the latest In Gold We Trust report, which gives an arrestingly different perspective on potential market and policy directions from traditional financial sources. The detailed report questions the role and effectiveness of traditionally 'risk-free' assets like government bonds in the types of futures that could emerge. On first reading, the scenarios it contains appear atypical and beyond the reasonable contemplation of many investors - until it is recalled that up to a few years ago no mainstream economics textbook would have entertained the potential for persistent negative interest rates. As the paths to different futures diverge, drawing on the wisdom of others to help look as far as possible into the bends in the undergrowth ahead becomes the safest choice. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
New Lands, or New Eyes? | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - April 2020
The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes. - Marcel Proust, Remembrance of Things Past This is my forty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $697 582 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $40 709 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 583 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 563 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 864 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $31 505 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $215 805 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 625 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 323 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 904 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 458 Secured physical gold – $19 269 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $12 234 Bitcoin – $158 360 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 144 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 435 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 471 Total portfolio value: $1 694 834 (+$127 888 or 8.2%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 21.7% Emerging markets shares – 2.2% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 26.9% (3.1% under) Total shares – 67.8% (7.2% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.5% International bonds – 9.9% Total bonds – 14.4% (0.6% under) Gold – 8.2% Bitcoin – 9.3% Gold and alternatives – 17.5% (7.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month featured a sharp recovery in the overall portfolio, reducing the size of the large losses experienced over the previous month. The portfolio increased by over $127 000, representing a growth of 8.2 per cent, which is the largest month-on-month growth on record. This now puts the portfolio value significantly above the levels of a year ago. [Chart] The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month. From a nadir of initial pessimism in late March, markets have generally moved upwards as debate continues about the path of a likely economic recession and recovery from Coronavirus impacts over the coming year. [Chart] First quarter distributions from the Australian and Global Shares ETFs (A200, VAS and VGS) were received this month. These were too early to fully reflect the sharp economic activity impacts of the Coronavirus and lockdown period on company earnings. Despite this, they were significantly down on a cents per unit basis on the equivalent distributions last year. Totalling around $2700, these distributions formed part of new contributions to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). The rapid falls in equity have many participants looking forward to a return to normalcy, or at least more open to the pleasing ideas that nerves have been held in a market fall comparable to 2000 or 2008-09, and that markets now represent clear value. As discussed last month, there should be caution and some humility about these questions, if some historical perspective is taken. As an example, the largest global equity market in the world - the United States - remains at valuation levels well above those experienced in previous market lows. Portfolio alternatives - tracking changes under the surface A striking feature of the past year or so has been the expansion of the non-traditional or 'alternatives' components of gold and Bitcoin as a proportion of the overall portfolio. Currently, when combined these alternative assets form a greater part of the portfolio than at any point over the past two years. The chart below shows that since January 2019 the gold and Bitcoin component of the portfolio has lifted from around its long term target level of 10 per cent, to now make up over 17 per cent of the portfolio. In the space of the last four months alone, it has lifted from 13 per cent. [Chart] With no purchases of either gold or Bitcoin over the period, the growth in the chart is the result of two reinforcing factors: A substantial fall in the value of the equity portfolio - reaching nearly $200 000 since the recent February market peak has naturally and mathematically led to a commensurate increase the proportion of other assets. Increases in the value of gold and Bitcoin - have also played a role with a total appreciation of around $150 000 across the two assets over the past 16 months. In fact, the value gold holdings alone have increased by over 40 per cent since January last year. Further appreciation of either gold or Bitcoin prices, particularly if any further falls in equity markets occur, could easily place the portfolio in the same position as experienced in January 2018. At that time these alternative assets made up 1 in every 5 dollars of the portfolio, an unusual, and in that case temporary phenomenon. This represents a different portfolio and risk exposure than that envisaged in my portfolio investment plan. Yet, equally it is critical to recall what the circumstances would likely be for this to arise. Simultaneously high gold and Bitcoin prices are more likely to occur in a situation of severe capital market dislocation, or falling confidence. On the other hand, should confidence and equity market growth be restored, both of these portfolio components could fall back to lower levels. It is difficult to tell which state of the world will eventuate, a key reason for diversification across asset types. United States government debt is already at record levels - equivalent in real terms to levels last seen when it emerged out of the Second World War - despite no similar national effort having being undertaken. Future inflation can potentially partly manage this burden, however, the last sustained episode of persistently high inflation rates during the decade of the 1970s spelt negative real returns. Where investors expect future inflation or financially 'repressive' policies of inflation exceeding interest rates, the economic growth required to 'grow out' of debt can be affected. At this point, my inclination is to address this circumstance gradually through time by re-balancing of distributions and new contributions, rather than to realise capital gains by selling assets at one, or several, points in time. Chasing down the lines - falling average spending in lockdown Since the implementation of lockdown restrictions, average credit card expenditure has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. This has taken credit card expenditure to lower than any similar period in the past six years. Partly as a result of this - as the chart below shows - a new development is occurring. The previously fairly steady card expenses line (red) is now starting to bend down towards, or 'chase', the rolling average distributions line (in blue). [Chart] The declining distributions line is a result of some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure. This intriguing picture will probably change before a cross-over occurs, as lockdown restrictions ease, and as the data feeding into the three year average slowly changes over time. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 77.7% 104.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 94.8% 127.6% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 76.0% 102.3% Summary Last month market volatility theoretically took progress down to below most of my financial independence benchmarks on an 'All Assets' (i.e. portfolio and superannuation assets) basis. This position has reversed this month. As markets have recovered and with additional spare time in the lockdown period, I have continued to seek out and think about different perspectives on the history and future of markets. Yet it must be recognised that there is a natural limit to the utility of these ponderings. The shape of the future is always uncertain, and in this world, confident comparisons and analogies with past events can be perilous. Comparisons with past periods of financial market crises miss the centrality of government action as a causal influence on the path of virus affected economies and markets. A virus and recovery is not the same as a global financial crisis originating in housing finance markets addressed through monetary and fiscal stimulus. Most developed country governments have quickly applied the same, if not larger versions of responses as applied in the global financial crisis, a distinguishing step that also makes analogies with the great depression era problematic. Similarly, a pandemic is not hitting and interacting with the shattered economic and health systems of the 1918-19 Spanish flu. Overlaying all of this is the imperfect and partially disconnected relationship between the economy today, and equity markets that discount and focus on the future. This makes all history's lessons more than usually caveated and conditional. One avenue for managing through these times is to focus on what does not change - the psychological difficulty of accepting alterations in financial circumstances and the capacity of markets movements to cruelly surprise us in both timing and direction. One of the best texts to read to get a sense of both of these in such times is Benjamin Roth's A Great Depression Diary. This tells of the day-by-day changes observed in everyday urban life and investment markets, from the point of view of an American small retail investor living through the times. This month also saw the exciting news that Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia are combining efforts to produce a new podcast. Speaking of which, Big ERN's reflections on the current implications of sharemarket market movements for seekers of financial independence have been filled with insight and wisdom. This interesting piece (video) - the latest in a 'virus' market series - from New York University's Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran on asset performances through the past few months - is a more technical and detailed discussion of how markets have re-priced businesses and profits. Finally, the recently released Hmmminar interview series provides a more heterodox set of speakers and ideas on current markets, presented by Grant Williams. Unlike predicting the future, seeking out different perspectives on it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been in history. While it is not always possible to change the course taken, it is possible to look at the same horizon with new eyes. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first. https://preview.redd.it/uaryqg421cf51.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=049a3413ff1392c1f579e84e9a14cac76959e12c For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week. Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally. 👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold. 👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.
"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce. https://preview.redd.it/vdk9z7251cf51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=057fc3749ebb69d881d5c0f1dbb35e8d075c7b89 The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000. https://preview.redd.it/98v29w551cf51.png?width=2272&format=png&auto=webp&s=50b3957a0cffaa121d49c38e083223780841a3a9 Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola. https://preview.redd.it/z6cxe1y51cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e74da23155fd6a4b9fe2521c61cbf4bd8bd9b94 A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000". I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.
💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand. https://preview.redd.it/864543571cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cc17316075758ca10523a6124204ca57351d737 On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets. After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading. *If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely. I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!! I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post. Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS. Thank you. MCS Website:https://mycoinstory.com/ MCS Official Twitter (EN):https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs MCS Official Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official MCS Telegram Chat (EN):https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
Bitcoin rallies are cohesive with multiple metrics now
With Bitcoin’s price gathering positive momentum in its price charts, some of the important metrics were beginning to witness a shift. The largest digital asset recently breached over the $11,500 once again and it is currently marching towards a re-test of the $12,000 resistance. With the price climbing the valuation ladder, the Glassnode indicated that […]
LeanFIRE and Goal Oriented Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid
Dear All - After my earlier post regarding COVID-19 and 10 rules to deploy savings that generated lots of questions and interest I would like to share my thoughts about Goal Oriented Investing. While it's a 101 it may nevertheless be helpful to highlight especially in this market environment. I wasn't able to put graphs and videos here so you may find the full version here. Looking forward to hearing your feedback.
1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios
Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets.
2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait
Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the chart here - 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.
3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance
Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.
4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control
This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the Stoic newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst).
5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks
Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.
6. Being overly conservative over the long run
Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.
7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs
Believe it or not but a lot of bankers working for the top names tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices (monetary inflation). Even when you hear about deflation it’s often very misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already. As an example – the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much. The same applies to other real assets, like company valuations (stocks) or gold.
8. Not considering diversification
Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well. As an example YTD performance (as of March 9th when I did the analysis) was -14.2% for stocks, +6.1% for bonds and +10.7% for Gold.
9. Letting your emotions rule
This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.
The Decred blockchain has a consistent baseload of demand for block-space, a result of the PoS ticket system and, more recently, on-chain CoinJoin privacy transactions. As such, the Realised Price metric differs in interpretation to Bitcoin. A strong conviction Decred holder actually has a regular and frequent on-chain signature moving DCR as opposed to the equivalent of long periods of dormancy for Bitcoin. The Realised Price tends to follow the spot price more closely, however lags behind the day-to-day fluctuations in off-chain price sentiment. The chart below presents an experimental metric that takes the 28-day gradient of the Market Cap and Realised Cap, and produces an oscillator from their difference (purple). This tool distills times where off-chain price momentum bias flips before the on-chain response as DCR is bound in tickets and takes time to transact. Where the oscillator crosses the zero level, it often precedes a shift in price momentum in the direction of the flip.\ https://preview.redd.it/6bu8nqznt3y41.png?width=1296&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd1226fab2e792ab72f95cc6ab8047c4c60f9b56
Insight 2 - NVT and RVT Ratio
As noted, Decred has a consistent transaction demand which also shows up as reliable NVT and RVT signals. These metrics take the ratio between network valuation (market cap or realised cap) and the adjusted daily transaction value flowing through the chain, all denominated in USD. The chart below presents the NVT and RVT both in 28-day and 90-day moving average format with sound agreement in trend and magnitude between all. During periods of bullish sentiment, we can observe low NVT|RVT ratios indicating that the chain is settling a substantial value relative to its network valuation, and vice-versa indicates bearish sentiment. Of particular interest is the period of strong demand for on-chain settlement since Aug 2019 at which point the CoinJoin privacy mix server came live. This provides valuable feedback for the community and developers regarding actual demand for the mixing service, and also gives miners a basis for future fee market expectations. https://preview.redd.it/w954rgnqt3y41.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=f86b365055caa125beaa5dfec7067a2ee5bb0e09
Insight 3 - Cumulative Transaction Volumes
Digging into transaction demand further, the area chart below shows the cumulative DCR settled on-chain through protocol history, divided into regular transactions (orange), ticket purchases (green) and CoinJoin mixes (red). The line charts to the right axis presents the daily transaction volume in DCR for ticket purchases and CoinJoins. It can be seen that the gradient of the area plot has steepened since the privacy mix service went live, confirming increased demand for block-space. There has been a steady uptick in DCR flowing through the anonymity set with around 110k DCR mined in CoinJoin transactions per day. This represents around 0.96% of the total circulating DCR supply in CoinJoins, and is substantial when compared to the 192k DCR that are mined into tickets daily (1.67% of circ. supply). https://preview.redd.it/y57bo6xrt3y41.png?width=1329&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bb4815052cd074ef06b33cc88c6d3f068c383b0
Insight 4 - Decred Treasury Flows
The Decred Treasury underpins the self-sovereign development of the protocol, and its accumulated value is subject to the market's pricing of DCR. To date, the treasury has spent a total of $7.625M bootstraping the network from genesis to now when pricing each outgoing transaction on the day of the spend. This represents around one third of the incoming DCR so far and 16% of the total DCR inflows that will occur via the block subsidy ending in year 2140. Based on a current DCR coin price of $14/DCR, the Treasury is capitalized with enough USD value to build another Decred (assuming $7.625M build cost) and can repeat that metric for each $12 uplift in DCR price given the current Treasury balance of 636.3k DCR. https://preview.redd.it/v914ebdst3y41.png?width=1339&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b6ee00a258f2a62be102b60ff3873c0417b99d1
Insight 5 - Treasury Vote Power
Finally, an interesting metric to gauge stakeholder governance power is to look at how much Treasury value is governed by each ticket in the PoS pool. The chart below presents the Treasury balance divided by the count of tickets in the pool (red), showing that each ticket commands decision making power of around 15.5 DCR. If we divided this by the purchase price of a ticket denominated in DCR (blue), governance power typically represents around 11% of the ticket value. Given tickets vote on average every 28 days, this means governance power on an annualised basis is equivalent to 143% of a typical ticket in value. https://preview.redd.it/lq1s5azst3y41.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ffb7fd567b77eabe44d5ca3e26f0e271f87baa6
CryptoMiso ranks blockchain projects according to their developer activity. Herein, “activity” is defined as the number of code contributions to the popular repository platform GitHub. The more the developers, the higher the confidence in the project, a fundamental factor that directly affects the value of a digital asset. More participants also mean more features. Based on this, Lisk, aelf, and Chainlink, respectively, are the most valuable as developers were unfazed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. For the uninitiated, Lisk is an open-source project seeking to drive blockchain accessibility and interoperability. Lisk developers are provided with a software development kit (SDK) for distributed ledger technology (DLT) applications. https://preview.redd.it/bxob7aryp2551.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=80643ef07cf1849ea1f9a7aeac9bf385c0ca04fb
aelf Community Continues to Deliver
Closely following Lisk in terms of developer activity on GitHub is the decentralized self-evolving cloud computing blockchain network aelf. ![img](jv7vzox0q2551 " ") Launched in August 2017, aelf is committed toward providing a high-performance platform for commercial adoption of DLT. The coronavirus pandemic seems to have minimal impact on the aelf ecosystem as it hit its yearly ATH during the lockdown with an impressive 212 commits at the start of March. https://preview.redd.it/nlhn87e2q2551.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=26ce79a464b84a36d5d60ad737eb6927206124e2 Interestingly, it only took aelf two days to submit the same number of commits (284) as Ripple had the whole year.
A Win for Chainlink?
It will be food for thought for traders and investors most of whom are glued to price charts, making decisions solely based on price action. From this “new” ranking, it will be a double win for Chainlink, an oracle network. Perched at third in the CryptoMiso leader-board, it could mean its native token LINK may be undervalued. https://preview.redd.it/xwf6ljn5q2551.png?width=475&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fd9bf7f2e4858eeb6666ffd2ec59f7c2961c775 The Chainlink network offers reliable tamper-proof inputs and outputs for complex smart contracts across all blockchain networks. The project’s decentralized oracle network provides a robust security guarantee. The protocol’s structure allows multiple Chainlinks to evaluate the same data before it becomes a trigger. This way, it eliminates any one point of failure and keeps the overall value of a smart contract that is highly secure, transparent, and reliable.
Bitcoin, TRON, Ethereum Slide Down the Ranks
While Lisk, aelf, and Chainlink shined on GitHub, other heavyweights in the cryptocurrency ecosystem tumbled. Bitcoin, the premier cryptocurrency although has well over 100 contributors, failed to provide more than 80 commits on any given day. In the same vein, the top altcoin, Ethereum, tumbled down to 41st position despite their highly-anticipated ETH 2.0. upgrade poised to be released soon. Other smart contract projects, such as TRON and EOS displayed similar unimpressive results. Over the past six months, EOS has slid from 11th position down to 19th. TRON, similarly dropped from 18th position to 20th when comparing their 12 months and 6-month activity levels.
I've heard that founder of MakerDAO is not strictly against KYC. I have a message to whole community and specifically to a founder of MakerDAO Rune Christensen. I will explain using concrete examples why having KYC in MakerDAO is a grave mistake and it will lead to MakerDAO fork. Many people in the first world never actually understand why financial privacy and financial inclusion is important. Even people (in the first world) who seemingly supportive of such ideas are not able to provide any concrete examples of why it's actually important. Unfortunately, I was born in a "wrong" country (Uzbekistan) and I experienced first hand what financial exclusion actually means. I know first hand that annoying feeling when you read polite, boilerplate rejection letter from financial institution based in first world. So I had to become practical libertarian. I'm going to give you concrete examples of financial discrimination against me. Then I'm going to explain fundamental reasons why it happens. And finally, I'm going to explain my vision for DAI. Back in 2005, I lived in Uzbekistan. I had an idea to invest in US stocks. I was very naive and I didn't know anything about investing, compliance, bank transfers, KYC etc. All I knew is nice long term charts of US stocks and what P/E means. I didn't contact any US brokerage but I checked information about account opening and how to transfer money there. I approached local bank in Uzbekistan and asked how to transfer money to Bank of New York. Banker's face was like - WOW, WTF?!?! They asked me to go to private room to talk with senior manager. Senior manager of local bank in Uzbekistan asked me why I wanted to transfer money to US. They told me that it's absolutely impossible to transfer money to US/EU and pretty much anywhere. I approached nearly every local bank in the town and they told me the same. In 2012, I already lived in Moscow and acquired Russian citizenship. I got back to my old idea - investing in US stocks. I called to many US brokerages and all of them politely rejected me. Usually when I called I asked them if I can open an account with them. They told me to hold on line. After long pause, I was able to speak with "senior" support who politely explain me that Russia in their list of restricted countries and they can't open an account for me. Finally, I was able to open an account with OptionsXpress. Next challenge was to convince local Russian bank to transfer money to US. Back then in 2012, I was able to get permission to do so. So you might say - is this happy end? Fast forwarding US brokerage story to 2017, OptionsXpress was acquired by Charles Schwab. I was notified that my OptionsXpress account will be migrated to Charles Schwab platform. In 2017, I already lived in the Netherlands (but still having Russian citizenship). I wasn't happy with my stupid job in the Netherlands. I called Charles Schwab and asked if I quit my job in the Netherlands and have to return to Russia, what will happen with my account. Schwab told me that they will restrict my account, so I can't do anything except closing my account. So even if I was long term customer of OptionsXpress, Charles Schwab is not fully okay with me. Going back to 2013, I still lived in Russia. I had another idea. What if I quit my job and build some SAAS platform (or whatever) and sell my stuff to US customers. So I need some website which accept US credit cards. I contacted my Russian bank (who previously allowed me to transfer money to OptionsXpress) about steps to make in order to accept US credit cards in Russia. I've been told explicitly in email that they won't allow me to accept US credit cards under any circumstances. Back then I still believed in "the free west". So I thought - no problem, I will just open bank account abroad and do all operations from my foreign account. I planned vacation in Hong Kong. And Hong Kong is freest economy in the world. Looks like it's right place to open bank account. I contacted HSBC Hong Kong via email. Their general support assured me that I can open bank account with them if I'm foreigner. I flew to Hong Kong for vacation and visited HSBC branch. Of course, they rejected me. But they recommended me to visit last floor in their HQ building, they told me that another HSBC branch specializes on opening bank accounts for foreigners. I went there and they said minimum amount to open bank account is 10 mil HKD (1.27 mil USD). Later I learned that it's called private banking. When I relocated to the Netherlands, I asked ABN Amro staff - what's happen with my bank account if I quit/lose my job in the Netherlands and have to return back to Russia. I've been told that I can't have my dutch bank account if I go back to Russia even if I already used their bank for 2+ years. I still had idea that I would like to quit my job and do something for myself. The problem is that I'm Russian citizen and I don't have any residency which is independent from my employment. So if I quit my job in the Netherlands, I have to return back to Russia. I wanted to see how I would get payments from US/EU customers. I found Stripe Atlas, it's so exciting, they help you to incorporate in US, and even help with banking, all process of receiving credit card payments is very smooth. But as usual in my case, there is a catch - Russia in their list of restricted countries. Speaking of centralized compliance-friendly (e.g. KYC) crypto exchanges. This year I live and work in Hong Kong. Earlier this year, I thought it would be nice to have an account at local crypto exchange in Hong Kong so I can quickly transfer money from my bank account in Hong Kong to crypto exchange using FPS (local payment system for fast bank transfers). What could go wrong? After all Hong Kong is freest economy in the world, right? I submitted KYC documents to crypto exchange called Weever including copy of my Hong Kong ID as they requested. They very quickly responded that they need copy of my passport as well. I submitted copy of my Russian passport. This time they got silent. After a few days, they sent me email saying that Russia is on the US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanction list, so they just require me to fill a form about source of the funds. I told them that the source of my funds is salary, my Hong Kong bank can confirm that along with my employment contract. They got very silent after I sent them a filled form. After a week of silence I asked them - when my account get approved? They said that their compliance office will review my application soon. And they got very silent again. I waited for two or three weeks. Then I asked them again. And I immediately got email with title - Rejection for Weever Account Opening. And text of email was:
We are sorry to inform you that Weever may not be able to accept your account opening application at this stage.
Exactly the same situation I had with one crypto exchange in Europe back in 2017. Luckily I have accounts at other crypto exchanges including Gemini, one of most compliance obsessed exchange in the world. Although I don't keep my money there because I can't trust them, who knows what might come into head of their compliance officer one sunny day. By the way, I'm living and working outside of Russia for quite a few years. The situation with crypto exchanges is much worse for those who still living in Russia. I give you a few other examples of financial discrimination is not related to troubles with my Russian citizenship. Back in 2018, I still lived in the Netherlands. I logged in into my brokerage account just to buy US ETFs as I always do - SPY and QQQ. I placed my order and it failed to fill. I thought it's just a technical problem with my brokerage account. After a few failed attempts to send buy orders for SPY and QQQ, I contacted their support. What they told me was shocking and completely unexpected. They said I'm not permitted to buy US ETFs anymore as EU resident because EU passed a law to protect retail investors. So as a EU resident I'm allowed to be exposed to more risk by buying individual US stocks but I'm not allowed to reduce my risk by buying SPY because ... EU wants to protect me. I felt final result of new law. By the way, on paper their law looks fine. And the final example. It's a known fact that US public market become less attractive in recent decades. Due to heavy regulatory burden companies prefer to go public very late. So if successful unicorn startup grows from its inception/genesis to late adoption, company's valuation would be 3-5 orders of orders of magnitude. For example, if valuation of successful company at inception is 1 Mil USD, then at its very latest stage it's valuation would be 10 Bil USD. So we have 10'000 times of growth. In the best case scenario, company would go public at 1 Bil USD 5-10 years before reaching its peak 10 Bil USD. So investors in private equity could enjoy 1000 fold growth and just leave for public only last 10 fold growth stretched in time. In the worst case scenario, company would go public at 10 Bil USD, i.e. at its historical peak. But there are well known platforms to buy shares of private companies, one of such platforms is Forge Global. You can buy shares of almost all blue chip startups. You can even invest in SpaceX! But as always, there is a catch - US government wants to protect not just US citizens but all people in the world (sounds ridiculous, right?). US law requires you to have 1 Mil USD net worth or 200'000 USD annual income if you want to buy shares of non-public company. So if you are high-net worth individual you can be called "accredited investor". Funny thing is that the law intends to protect US citizens but even if you are not US citizen and never even lived in US, this law is still applies to you in practice. So if you are "poor loser", platforms like Forge Global will reject you. So high-net worth individuals have access and opportunity to Bitcoin-style multi-magnitude growth every 5-10 years. Contrary to private equity markets, US public markets is low risk/low return type of market. If you have small amount of capital, it's just glorified way to protect yourself from inflation plus some little return on top. It's not bad, US public market is a still great way to store your wealth. But I'm deeply convinced that for small capital you must seek fundamentally different type of market - high risk/high return. It's just historical luck that Bitcoin/Ethereum/etc were available for general public from day one. But in reality, viral/exponential growth is happening quite often. It's just you don't have access to such type of markets due to regulatory reasons. I intentionally described these examples of financial discrimination in full details as I experienced them because I do feel that vast majority of people in the first world honestly think that current financial system works just fine and only criminals and terrorists are banned. In reality that's not true at all. 99.999% of innocent people are completely cut off from modern financial system in the name of fighting against money laundering. Here is a big picture why it's happening. There are rich countries (so called western world) and poor countries (so called third world). Financial wall is carefully built by two sides. Authoritarian leaders of poor countries almost always want full control over their population, they don't like market economy, and since market forces don't value their crappy legal system (because it works only for close friends of authoritarian leader) they must implement strict capital control. Otherwise, all capital will run away from their country because nobody really respects their crappy legal system. It only has value under heavy gun of government. Only friends of authoritarian leader can move their money out of country but not you. Leaders of rich countries want to protect their economy from "dirty money" coming from third world. Since citizens of poor countries never vote for leaders of rich countries nobody really cares if rich country just ban everyone from poor country. It's the most lazy way to fight against money laundering - simply ban everyone from certain country. Actually if you look deeper you will see that rich countries very rarely directly ban ordinary people from third world. Usually, there is no such law which doesn't allow me to open bank account somewhere in Europe as non-EU resident. What's really happens is that US/EU government implement very harsh penalties for financial institutions if anything ever goes wrong. So what's actually happens is that financial institutions (banks, brokerages etc) do de-risking. This is the most important word you must know about traditional financial system! So if you have wrong passport, financial institution (for example) bank from rich country just doesn't want to take any risks dealing with you even if you are willing to provide full documentation about your finances. It's well known fact that banks in Hong Kong, Europe, US like to unexpectedly shutdown accounts of thousands innocent businesses due to de-risking. So it's actually de-risking is the real reason why I was rejected so many times by financial institutions in the first world!!! It's de-risking actually responsible for banning 99.999% of innocent people. So governments of rich democratic countries formally have clean hands because they are not banning ordinary people from third world directly. All dirty job is done by financial institutions but governments are well aware of that, it's just more convenient way to discriminate. And nobody actually cares! Ordinary citizens in rich countries are never exposed to such problems and they really don't care about people in third world, after all they are not citizens of US/EU/UK/CH/CA/HK/SG/JP/AU/NZ. And now are you ready for the most hilarious part? If you are big corrupt bureaucrat from Russia you are actually welcome by the first world financial institutions! All Russian's junta keep their stolen money all across Europe and even in US. You might wonder how this is possible if the western financial system is so aggressive in de-risking. Here is a simple equation which financial institution should solve when they decide whether to open an account for you or not: Y - R = net profit Where: Y - how much profit they can make with you; R - how much regulatory risk they take while working with you; That's it! It's very simple equation. So if you are really big junta member from Russia you are actually welcome according to this equation. Banks have special name for serving (ultra) high-net worth individuals, it's called private banking. It's has nothing to do with the fact that bank is private. It's just fancy name for banking for rich. So what's usually happen in real world. Some Estonian or Danish bank got caught with large scale money laundering from Russia. European leaders are ashamed in front of their voters. They implement new super harsh law against money laundering to keep their voters happy. Voters are ordinary people, they don't care about details of new regulations. So banks get scared and abruptly shutdown ALL accounts of Russian customers. And European voters are happy. Modern money laundering laws are like shooting mouse in your house using bazooka! It's very efficient to kill mouse, right? Now imagine world without financial borders. It's hard to do so because we are all get so used to current status quo of traditional financial system. But with additional effort you can start asking questions - if Internet economy is so global and it doesn't really matter where HQ of startup is located, why they are all concentrated in just a few tiny places like Silicon Valley and ... well, that's mostly it if you count the biggest unicorns! Another question would be - why so many talented russian, indian, chinese programmers just go to the same places like San Francisco, London and make super rich companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple to get even richer? If all you need is laptop and access to internet, why you don't see any trade happening between first and third world? Well actually there is a trade between first and third world but it's not exactly what I want to see. Usually third world countries sell their natural resources through giant corporations to the first world. So it's possible to get access to the first world market from third world but this access usually granted only to big and established companies (and usually it means not innovative). Unicorns are created through massive parallel experiment. Every week bunch of new startups are created in Silicon Valley. Thousands and thousands startups are created in Silicon Valley with almost instant access to global market. Just by law of large numbers you have a very few of them who later become unicorns and dominate the world. But if you have wrong passport and you are located in "wrong" country where every attempt to access global market is very costly, then you most likely not to start innovative startup in the first place. In the best case scenario, you just create either local business or just local copy-paste startup (copied from the west) oriented on (relatively small) domestic market. Obviously in such setup it's predictable that places like Silicon Valley will have giant advantage and as a result all unicorns get concentrated in just a few tiny places. In the world without financial barriers there will be much smaller gap between rich and poor countries. With low barrier of entry, it won't be a game when winner takes all. Whole architecture of decentralized cryptocurrencies is intended to remove middle man and make transactions permissionless. Governments are inherently opposite to that, they are centralized and permissioned. Therefore, decentralized cryptocurrencies are fundamentally incompatible with traditional financial system which is full of middle mans and regulations (i.e. permissions). Real value of crypto are coming from third world, not the first world. People are buying crypto in rich countries just want to invest. Their financial system and their fiat money are more or less already working for them. So there is no immediate urgency to get rid of fiat money in the first world. So the first world citizens buying crypto on centralized KYCd exchanges are essentially making side bet on the success of crypto in third world. Real and natural environment of cryptocurrencies is actually dark OTC market in places like Venezuela and China. But cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have a big limitation to wide adoption in third world - high volatility. So the real target audience is oppressed (both by their own government and by first world governments) ordinary citizens of third world countries yet they are least who can afford to take burden of high volatility. Right now, Tether is a big thing for dark markets across the world (by the way, dark market doesn't automatically imply bad!). But Tether soon or later be smashed by US/EU regulators. The only real and working permissionless stable cryptocurrency (avoiding hyped word - stablecoin) is DAI. DAI is the currency for post-Tether world to lead dark OTC market around the world and subvert fiat currencies of oppressive third world governments. Once DAI become de-facto widespread currency in shadow economy in all of third world, then it will be accepted (after many huge push backs from governments) as a new reality. I'm talking about 10-20+ years time horizon. But if MakerDAO chooses the route of being compliance friendly then DAI will lose its real target audience (i.e. third world). I can not imagine US/EU calmly tolerate someone buying US stocks and using as a collateral to issue another security (i.e. DAI) which is going to be traded somewhere in Venezuela! You can not be compliance friendly and serve people in Venezuela. Facebook's Libra was stupidest thing I've seen. It's extremely stupid to ask permission from the first world regulators to serve third world and create borderless economy. Another stupid thing is to please third world governments as well. For example, Libra (if ever run) will not serve Indian, Chinese, Venezuelan people. Who is then going to use stupid Libra? Hipsters in Silicon Valley? Why? US dollars are good enough already.
The past month of price action in the cryptocurrency markets has been extreme, with Decred price action being no exception. This week we look at a number of key metrics which have reached extreme values, often associated with the formation of price bottoms, reflexivity, and mean reversion. The first metric is the Stock-to-Flow model which was developed by the author. This model considers a log-log regression fit between Market Cap and the Stock-to-flow ratio of the Decred coin supply. The S2F Multiple is also shown which functions as an oscillator, indicating when network valuation has become oveundervalued relative to the S2F 'fair value' model. Following the price drop on 12/Mar, the DCR S2F multiple has entered the historical low zone last seen in Jan 2017. https://preview.redd.it/7o6dzb47r5r41.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8b2f077ffe090dfa3746b2b514c0db63dcd91ee
Insight 2 - Stock-to-Flow Residuals
The next chart shows the statistical distance between the Decred Market Cap and the predicted S2F model valuation, measured in standard deviations. For reference, an equivalent S2F model for Bitcoin is shown, with some interesting similarities in the fractals playing out in Decred's price discovery. It can be seen for both networks, that as network value approaches ~2x standard deviations from the prediction, price tends to snap back towards the mean. For Bitcoin, this generally coincides with halving events, a shock to S2F value and scarcity. For Decred, this is more closely associated with oversold conditions since the smooth issuance curve is less variable than Bitcoin's. https://preview.redd.it/1httuil6r5r41.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0da25cc47b7969f6fbfed9f9376a13d0c43002
Insight 3 - 142-day Ticket Sum
An on-chain metric developed by u/permabullnino is the 142-day sum of all USD value bound in Decred tickets. DCR coins bound in tickets are indicative of strong demand for holding DCR long term. This metric (red line) has shown to act similar to an upper bound Bollinger Band as resistance during price discovery. By taking Fibonacci multiples (23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%) of the 142-day ticket sum, additional trading ranges and boundaries have been identified. In particular, the 23.6% Fibonacci multiple (green line) has provided lower bound support throughout bull and bear cycles. In the 12/Mar market sell-off, price pierced below this level before rapidly bouncing back into the range. https://preview.redd.it/oigufn86r5r41.png?width=1388&format=png&auto=webp&s=5988ef2953cf40d3c39d8d441af9a1eb4355bd0b
Insight 4 - Puell Multiple
Decred ASIC miners have endured very challenging market conditions after ASIC hardware was first released in Jan 2018, at the peak of the alt-coin market cycle. Given miners are long term thinkers and investors, the Puell Multiple provides insight into whether income streams are profitable or not and the level of stress in the hash-power network. The Puell Multiple takes the ratio of daily PoW USD income to its 365day average. This provides a view of today's income relative to the past year. Similar to the metrics shown above, the Puell Multiple is approaching an extreme value commonly associated with the proverbial event where 'miners put the bottom in'. https://preview.redd.it/m1l3lct5r5r41.png?width=1303&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1143baa59722d8e8e9805d17bb6ebf06f8a63ee
BTC USD (Bitcoin / US Dollar) This is the most popular Bitcoin pair in the world. Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority or banks; managing transactions and the issuing of Bitcoins is carried out collectively by the network. Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public, nobody owns or controls this cryptocurrency and everyone can take part. Bitcoin price grew ... Bitcoin Revolution führt also schnelle trades für die Händler, wenngleich man hier auch keinesfalls Millisekunden als Maßstab zu Grunde legen sollte.; Statistiken und Charts, die ein menschlicher Händler erst einmal vor sich liegen haben muss, fließen bei einem Bitcoin Robot direkt in den Handel mit ein.Das bedeutet, dass die Algorithmen völlig automatisch arbeiten, wobei sie sich von ... Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. Skip to content. Prices. Products. Company. Earn crypto. Get $171+ Sign in. Get started. Price charts Bitcoin price. Bitcoin price (BTC) Add to Watchlist $ 13,070.01 +0.56%. 1h. 24h. 1w. 1m. 1y. all. $0.0000 January 1 12:00 AM. 10:56 AM 3:06 PM 7:17 PM 11:27 PM 3:38 AM ... Bitcoin; Markets; Charts; About. Oct 25, 2020 22:34:44 (UTC) Advertise on Bitcoincharts. Pricechart; Volume comparison ; Symbol. Time Period. Custom Time — < day > Chart Type. Price Band. Moving Averages. Technical Indicators large indicators. Options Show Volume Bars Volume in Currency Parabolic SAR Log Scale Percentage Scale. Link to this chart · Larger chart. This chart is licensed under ... Valuation Method C: Multiple of Average Mining Price. While the Net Present Cost method uses the mining assumptions for an individual with a single miner, most Bitcoins are mined in large scale operations with much lower mining costs. This model aims to derive the average cost to mine a Bitcoin on the global network. We can then think of the ...
Bitcoin 4 Dimensional Chart (Time, BTC/USD, BTC/Gold, and BTC/SPX)
Bitcoin + Alts Price Chart & Analysis (March 24th, 2020) - Duration: 14:51. TheChartGuys 3,013 views. 14:51. Bitcoin Live - Tom Crown Tom Crown 174 watching. Live now 🔴 Bitcoin LIVE : BTC ... Bitcoin + Alts Price Chart & Analysis (March 28th, 2020) - Duration: 16:50. TheChartGuys 4,821 views. 16:50. ex Goldman Sachs Trader Tells Truth about Trading - Part 1 - Duration: 12:39. We explore a 4-dimensional Bitcoin chart where we plot the price of BTC against time, the valuation with respect to the S&P 500, and the valuation with respect to gold (color-coded). There are some important signals on a chart of bitcoin that very few people are watching right now. What does it mean for BTC? We explain in this video. For more on Bitcoin visit: https://www ... Bitcoin Price Analysis with John Furner CEO of Walmart, Bitcoin BTC Halving and Walmart Updates The Furner 239 watching Live now How to Trade Fibonacci Retracements - Duration: 8:46.